Cycle Position Summary
Risk Mode
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Power Law Zone
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R² = ...
Fed Funds
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CPI YoY
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BTC Power Law — Rainbow Band
Logarithmic regression with standard deviation bands
Sell ZoneElevatedFairValueDeep Value
Source: Binance + CoinGeckoHistorical Cycle Overlay
BTC performance after each halving — aligned by days since halving
2016-20202020-20242024-present100% = halving day price. Source: Binance + CoinGecko
M2-BTC-DXY Correlation
Ben Cowen's Liquidity Framework — Normalized 0-100 Index
Source: FRED + CoinGecko
M2 YoY %
BTC % Change
DXY Inverted
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BTC Correlations — Gold & S&P 500
30-week rolling Pearson correlation
GoldS&P 500Above 0.5 = correlated. Below -0.5 = inverse. Source: Binance + FRED
On-Chain Metrics
Market Value to Realized Value — cycle top/bottom indicator
MVRV > 3.5 historically marks cycle tops. MVRV < 1 marks cycle bottoms.
Signal Backtest
Historical accuracy of RISK-ON / RISK-OFF signals
Macro Conditions
Key economic indicators driving crypto markets
Source: FRED
Rate cuts + falling CPI + falling yields = bullish crypto. Rising gold = inflation hedge demand.
Liquidity Cycle Score
Composite liquidity metric
Source: Multi-source
M2 Money Supply
Billions USD — Liquidity proxy indicator
Source: FRED
Data: Binance, FRED, Alternative.me. All free and publicly available. Not financial advice.