What is the CMI?
The CryptoMinds Index (CMI) is a composite risk score from 0 to 100 that synthesizes 7 independent macro and market signals into a single number. It answers one question: should you be risk-on or risk-off in crypto right now?
A CMI above 50 indicates Risk-On conditions (more signals bullish than bearish). Below 50 indicates Risk-Off. The further from 50, the stronger the signal.
The 7 Components
Stablecoin Flow
16%Stablecoin market-cap flow, scored as a 7-day median of the daily change to filter out single-day noise. Net inflows mean capital is entering the crypto ecosystem; sustained outflows mean capital is exiting to fiat.
M2 Money Supply (YoY)
15%Global liquidity is the primary driver of crypto prices. When M2 expands, excess liquidity flows into risk assets including BTC. When M2 contracts, liquidity tightens.
Valuation Zone
15%BTC follows a logarithmic growth trajectory. We score its position against our calibrated log-regression — fitted to 108 of 147 externally-published (date, price, risk) tuples, RMS error 0.141 across all 147. The value/fair boundary is fair value itself: below the regression line is "value", above it is not.
MVRV Z-Score
15%The standard MVRV Z-Score: (market cap − realized cap) divided by the standard deviation of market cap. It measures how far market value sits above the aggregate cost basis of all coins. Deeply negative marks historic bottoms; above ~3 marks cycle tops.
Broad Dollar Index (Inverted)
15%The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index — a trade-weighted basket of ~26 partner currencies (Jan 2006 = 100). Note this is NOT the ICE "DXY" (a 6-currency basket on a different base, currently near 100); the broad index is the better measure of global dollar tightness. A weakening dollar is bullish for crypto.
Fear & Greed (30d MA)
12%Market sentiment averaged over 30 days to reduce noise. Extreme fear has historically been a buying opportunity. Extreme greed precedes corrections.
Funding Rate
12%Perpetual futures funding rate shows leverage imbalance. Negative funding means shorts are paying longs (bullish). High positive funding means overleveraged longs (bearish).
Version History
When we find a mistake in the index, we fix it, version it, and say so here. CMI scores are not comparable across versions — a methodology change shifts the scale, so the thresholds move with it. We never recompute or edit a reading after publication: every historical score stands exactly as it was published, tagged with the version it was scored under.
- Dollar component: was scoring the Broad Dollar Index (~121) through a 0-100 map calibrated for the ICE DXY (~101), which confined a 15%-weight input to the bottom of its range and suppressed every reading. Now calibrated to the series actually used.
- Valuation: replaced a self-fitted power-law band — whose full-history data source silently failed, leaving it fitted on 2019-onward data — with our calibrated log-regression. Fair value moved from ~$105K to ~$67K.
- MVRV: we were publishing an in-house statistic (the MVRV ratio z-scored against its own history) under the name "MVRV Z-Score". It disagrees with the standard metric in sign. We now use the standard metric.
- Because v2 shifts the scale, the regime thresholds move with it. No historical reading has been recomputed or edited: v1 scores stand exactly as published, and every record carries the version it was scored under.
- Original 7-component composite.
Known Limitations
- Weights are fixed and have not been optimized via machine learning. They represent reasonable heuristic estimates.
- FRED data (M2, Broad Dollar) updates weekly/monthly with a lag. The CMI may not reflect very recent macro changes.
- When a data source fails we carry the last real reading forward and freeze the regime rather than publish a placeholder. A degraded reading is never written to the historical record.
- Funding rate data uses estimated values when the Binance Futures API is unavailable from US-based servers.
- The CMI is designed for BTC cycle positioning. It is not optimized for altcoin-specific signals or short-term trading.
- Past performance of the signal does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.