CryptoMinds

CMI Methodology

How the CryptoMinds Index is calculated

What is the CMI?

The CryptoMinds Index (CMI) is a composite risk score from 0 to 100 that synthesizes 6 independent macro and market signals into a single number. It answers one question: should you be risk-on or risk-off in crypto right now?

A CMI above 50 indicates Risk-On conditions (more signals bullish than bearish). Below 50 indicates Risk-Off. The further from 50, the stronger the signal.

0-20
Strong Risk-Off
20-40
Risk-Off
40-60
Neutral
60-80
Risk-On
80-100
Strong Risk-On

The 6 Components

M2 Money Supply (YoY)

20%

Global liquidity is the primary driver of crypto prices. When M2 expands, excess liquidity flows into risk assets including BTC. When M2 contracts, liquidity tightens.

Bullish: M2 growing > 5% YoYBearish: M2 contracting < 0% YoY
Source: FRED (Federal Reserve)

Power Law Zone

20%

BTC follows a logarithmic growth trajectory (power law). The further BTC is below the regression line, the more undervalued it is. The further above, the more overheated.

Bullish: Deep Value or Value zoneBearish: Elevated or Overheated zone
Source: Binance + CoinGecko

Fear & Greed (30d MA)

15%

Market sentiment averaged over 30 days to reduce noise. Extreme fear has historically been a buying opportunity. Extreme greed precedes corrections.

Bullish: Extreme Fear (< 25)Bearish: Extreme Greed (> 75)
Source: Alternative.me

Funding Rate

15%

Perpetual futures funding rate shows leverage imbalance. Negative funding means shorts are paying longs (bullish). High positive funding means overleveraged longs (bearish).

Bullish: Negative funding rateBearish: Funding > 0.05%
Source: Binance Futures

DXY (Inverted)

15%

The US Dollar Index inversely correlates with BTC. A weakening dollar (falling DXY) is bullish for crypto as capital seeks alternative stores of value.

Bullish: DXY falling / weak dollarBearish: DXY rising / strong dollar
Source: FRED

Stablecoin Supply Growth

15%

Growing stablecoin supply means capital is entering the crypto ecosystem. Shrinking supply means capital is exiting to fiat.

Bullish: Supply growing > 2% / 7dBearish: Supply shrinking
Source: CoinGecko

Known Limitations

  • Weights are fixed and have not been optimized via machine learning. They represent reasonable heuristic estimates.
  • FRED data (M2, DXY) updates weekly/monthly with a lag. The CMI may not reflect very recent macro changes.
  • Funding rate data uses estimated values when the Binance Futures API is unavailable from US-based servers.
  • The CMI is designed for BTC cycle positioning. It is not optimized for altcoin-specific signals or short-term trading.
  • Past performance of the signal does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.
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